The US Dollar Has Bottomed

foreign exchange news Sep 04, 2020

Published by Anthony Di Pizio

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Setting The Stage

To understand our point of view, it's important you read our previous post on this topic which we'll be referencing throughout this article. It was the basis of our prediction for EURUSD to rally from 1.08 to 1.20 back in May (ie, extreme USD weakness). Now, it's time to go the other way.

We established that over the last ~12 years, the USD has strengthened significantly despite interest rates steadily declining for the entire period. You might remember this chart overlaying the US Dollar Index with US 10 Year Yields since 2008:

What you're looking at is a +33% appreciation in the dollar despite interest rates falling about 84% over the same period. This is a longer term view, but in this update we're going to zoom in and look at the events following May 2020.

The Fed

When the Fed announced a renewed stimulus program in March to deal with COVID, the dollar...

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Opyl Announces AI Powered COVID-19 Clinical Trial Forecaster

asx news Sep 03, 2020

Published by Anthony Di Pizio

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The contents of the below article do not represent an endorsement of the company by ADS Capital or its associates. 

The News

Melbourne, Australia based Opyl (ASX:OPL) today announced that its Artificial Intelligence (AI) software can make ''probability of success'' predictions on the likelihood of a vaccine or therapy succeeding in clinical trials. They have focused this announcement on COVID-19 but says the software may be used for any clinical trial.

The company claims to have run software tests investigating the 475 registered COVID-19 clinical trials currently underway and:

  1. Has identified the two vaccine candidates most likely to succeed
  2. Determined that at least one antibody therapy has the best probability of success in Phase III trials
  3. Therapies show a much...
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Does PointsBet’s New Deal Warrant A $2 Billion Valuation?

news Sep 03, 2020

Published by Anthony Di Pizio

ADS Capital offers general market news and also research on specific stocks. Join one of our partner brokers to get full access!


CMC Markets

NBC Sports + PointsBet

US broadcaster NBC has agreed to make PointsBet Holdings (ASX:PBH) the official betting partner of its sports division, NBC Sports, with rights to various platforms across the network. Important deal points:

  • NBC currently has the largest sports audience in the US with 184 million viewers
  • PBH committed to spending US$393 million over 5 years on marketing with NBC, offset by an NBC equity subscription plus options to be (potentially) exercised
  • NBC takes on a 4.9% shareholding in PBH, with 66.88 million additional options maturing in 5 years
  • NBC has some key asset rights expiring in 2022, including NFL and English Premier League (EPL)

At face value, this deal is groundbreaking and it's not surprising PBH shares rose from $7.50 to $14.00 the day of the announcement,...

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Natural Gas Set To Rise Through 2022

energy Sep 01, 2020

Published by Anthony Di Pizio

How can you profit from this information? View our top stock pick for this sector!

The Pandemic and The Recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread global disruption to economies across the globe and the energy industry was not exempt. Prices were erratic, bankruptcies spiked, projects were thrown offline and demand suffered a contraction as entire populations ground to a halt. 

As a result, NatGas prices fell to record lows in the $1.40's/MMBtu (British Thermal Units) which was an acceleration of a cyclical price decline that was already in motion. Combined with uncertainty about the future, this was enough to see many major projects shelved or delayed, for example Australia's largest untapped conventional gas resource Browse, in Western Australia. 

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects prices to rise into the American and European winters of this year, and continue firming in 2021 as a result of reduced production...

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Abbott Labs Receives FDA Approval For COVID-19 Rapid Test

news Aug 30, 2020

Published by Anthony Di Pizio

Abbott's Rapid Test Breakthrough

On August 26th Abbott Laboratories announced that its BinaxNOW COVID-19 test received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the FDA. This is the first approved test that doesn't require laboratory instrumentation to detect active Coronavirus infections in patients, meaning it could be one key to reopening economies and borders.

The test is the size of a credit card and can deliver a result in 15 minutes. It requires a nasal swab which is then tested using Abbott’s proven lateral flow technology to detect antigens. If the patient is negative, they will receive a special QR code direct to an Abbott-designed app on their phone (called NAVICA) which organisations can scan for confirmation. The QR code will come with an expiration date determined by the requirements of the given organisation. 

Right now, the test only detects infections within 7 days of someone showing symptoms and may only be...

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What If You Were The World's Worst Market Timer?

market education Aug 02, 2020

Published by Anthony Di Pizio

When investing, focus on the long-term!

You're about to read the story of a fictional investor who invested only at the worst times (right before a major crash) for his entire working career. Let's call him Jim. The purpose of Jim's story is to highlight the importance of focusing on the long term when it comes to investing. 

Jim began his working career in 1977 at 20 years old and he had a promising plan in mind. He wanted to make one lump sum investment of $100,000 into the stock market every 10 years (give or take) until he eventually retired. He wanted broad market exposure so he planned to use a low cost S&P500 index fund which closely tracks the US S&P500. Jim has a special, unwanted talent though; he's a magnet for market tops. 

Investing in 1987

In 1987, Jim was really excited as he met his goals and managed to save his first  $100,000 to put towards an investment in the stock market. In August of that year, he made...

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How Does The US Dollar (Really) React To Changes In US Interest Rates?

foreign exchange Jul 14, 2020

Published by Anthony Di Pizio

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The US Dollar Isn't Like The Rest

The relationship between US interest rates and the US dollar is typically misunderstood, and this presents opportunities as investors are often caught offside. The US dollar index is widely used as a measure of independent US dollar value, and has steadily risen since 2008 even though the path of US monetary policy was expansionary for the majority of this period. 

Conventional economic theory tells us that when the central bank of a country contracts monetary policy, the domestic currency strengthens, and when it expands monetary policy the domestic currency weakens. When examining the behavior of the US dollar, you'll see that this theory doesn't really apply...

The Federal Reserve and the US Dollar

We live in a time of unprecedented monetary action, so let's start here. COVID-19 has triggered a global response, with the US Fed...

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